By Edoardo Molinari
Three-time DP World Tour winner and one of Europe's victorious Ryder Cup Vice Captains Edoardo Molinari identifies the key holes at Emirates Golf Club ahead of the 2026 Hero Dubai Desert Classic and the players to watch out for as one of golf's leading data analysts.
Looking Back: Tyrrell Hatton's victory in 2025
Tyrrell Hatton memorably celebrated his 200th start on Tour with a record-equalling fifth Rolex Series title on the DP World Tour at last year's Hero Dubai Desert Classic.
He did it by gaining a small amount in every major area of his game, culminating in a brilliant all-around performance where he gained 0.7 strokes off the tee, 0.4 strokes with his short game and 0.8 strokes with putting.
He gained shots on the field on seven holes of the front nine, which is a trend for him, having historically gained 90% of shots on the field on the front nine and only 10% on the back nine. He also gained 1.7 shots/round with approach shots on the field (48% of his total strokes gained), and the most of this between 150 and 200 yds, which is a key area at the Emirates for approach shots.
His only weakness for the week was putting inside 6 ft, where he lost 0.4, but he made up for it by making a lot of putts from mid-range and even a few from long range.
The Fortinet holes to watch out for
Instead of looking at the most difficult holes, this week we are looking at holes with the most variance in scoring, where the players have the biggest chance to separate themselves from the field and win or lose the event.
The three single most important shots at Emirates are the tee shot on 13, the approach shot on nine and the tee shot on 18. These are the three shots to keep an eye as it’s where the players can separate the most from the field in a single swing.
Below are the three most interesting holes and three most important shots in the round.
Hole 18 (Par 5, 564 yards)
o The third easiest hole but also the one with the most variability in scoring
o Historically there have been 44% birdies or better and over 10% bogeys or worse
o Hitting the fairway is vital here as players made 55% of birdies or better when they hit the fairway off the tee but the number drops to 30% when they miss it
o Players going for it score better by 0.514 shots/round over players laying up, so again the tee shot on 18 is probably the most important shot of the round.
Hole 9 (Par 4, 488 yards)
o Toughest hole on the course
o Players missing the fairway only hit the green 26% of times
o Most difficult approach shot on the course
o Only 7% of birdies vs 32% of bogeys or worse
Hole 13 (Par 5, 554 yards)
o Big variability in scoring with 42% of birdies and 9% bogeys or worse
o Most difficult green to putt on
o Less than 40% up-and-downs from the left of the green and water right, so it’s extremely important to hit the green if you are going for it in two.
Players to watch
This is a course that suits long hitters who can also putt well. Greens are pure and extremely fast.
The Stars
Rory McIlroy gained over three shots per round over the field in his last four appearances and this is one of the courses that suits him best. He seems to only struggle with his wegde game around Emirates but he performed at his best with all other parts of the game in the past. He will be a force to contend with this week,
Tommy Fleetwood has never played particularly well here in previous years as he always struggled on the greens around the Emirates, especially inside 15 feet. He will find a good week on the greens eventually and he should be up there on Sunday.
Patrick Reed has only played twice here but he was in contention both times. It looks like he loves the greens here, contrary to Tommy. The question mark is his game off the tee, which is needed to play well at Emirates. He will be up there if he can find a few more fairways than in the past.
Outsiders
Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen had a great finish to the season last year and this will be his last event in Europe for a few months. He is a great player tee to green and he had a good tournament last year in his debut at the Emirates.
Thriston Lawrence fits again the profile of a good player off the tee with great putting skills. He is also very aggressive off the tee which should help him at the Emirates.
Daniel Hillier is another outsider who could have a great week. He is quite long off the tee and he can make a ton of putts. He also had a great week last week at the Invitational so you should keep an eye on him this week too.
