Monday, 16 November 2015
Rory McIlroy   (Getty Images)
Rory McIlroy (Getty Images)

47 events done. One to go.

The Race to Dubai ends this week in Dubai and, quite remarkably, seven players are still in with a chance of winning the season-long crown. Whilst Rory McIlroy and Danny Willett remain neck-and-neck after a long battle for the top spot, Justin Rose, Shane Lowry, Louis Oosthuizen, Branden Grace and Byeong-hun An all have a mathematical chance of winning and seizing the coveted title - European Number One.

Here are the scenarios of what each player needs to happen this week in order to top The 2015 Race to Dubai:

Byeong-hun An


Events: 25
Wins: 1
Top 10s: 6
R2D Points: 2,139,356

Byeong-hun An could become the first rookie in European Tour history to win the Race to Dubai, but his chances are slim. The BMW PGA Champion enters the week as the lowest ranked player in the field in with a shout of winning the Race to Dubai.

To become European Number One, An would need to win the event, McIlroy finish worse than 28th, Willett finish worse than 27th and Rose, Lowry or Oosthuizen not finish second alone.

Branden Grace


Events: 18
Wins: 2
Top 10s: 6
R2D Points: 2,556,148

Branden Grace was the first two-time winner this season, having won in South Africa and Qatar, and is sixth in the Race to Dubai. With two top five finishes in his last four events, he appears to be in form with one event left to play. To take home the Race to Dubai title on Sunday evening, the South African needs to win or finish solo second while hoping for a number of other factors out of his control.

For Grace to become European Number One, he also requires McIlroy and Willett to finish worse than third. If Grace finishes second, he would need McIlroy to end his week worse than 42nd, Willett worse than 41st and An, Oosthuizen, Lowry or Rose not to win.

Louis Oosthuizen


Events: 12
Wins: 0
Top 10s: 6
R2D Points: 2,655,907

Having finished in the top 30 in all four Majors this season, including runner-up finishes at the US Open and Open, Louis Oosthuizen arrives in Dubai fifth in the current season-long standings. To become European Number One he will need to win or finish solo second.

If Oosthuizen wins the DP World Tour Championship this week, he would need McIlroy to finish worse than a three-way tie for second and Willett worse than a two-way tie for second. To top the Race to Dubai with a runner-up finish, Oosthuizen would require McIlroy and Willett to finish worse than 11th while avoiding a win from either Rose, Lowry or Grace.

Shane Lowry


Events: 17
Wins: 1
Top 10s: 5
R2D Points: 2,691,444

Building on the success of a top ten Race to Dubai finish in 2014, Shane Lowry enters the week in fourth place on the back of his first WGC title at the Bridgestone Invitational in August. For the Irishman to win he also needs to win or finish solo second.

A win for Lowry would be enough if McIlroy and Willett finish in a three-way tie for second or worse. To become European Number One with a second place finish, Lowry would need the top two in the current standings - McIlroy and Willett - to finish worse than eighth and Rose, Oosthuizen and Grace not to win.

Justin Rose


Events: 13
Wins: 1
Top 10s: 6
R2D Points: 2,742,924

Justin Rose has finished in the top three in the Race to Dubai in each of the last three seasons. After a top ten finish at last week's BMW Masters, the Englishman moved into the top three again with one event left to play. For Rose to win the Race to Dubai he needs a two-way tie for second or better.

A win for Rose would have him lift the season-long title if McIlroy and Willett finish in a three-way tie for second or worse. Assuming none of Lowry, Oosthuizen, Grace or An win, a solo second place for Rose would be enough to make him European Number One for the second time as long as McIlroy and Willett finish eighth or worse. Finally, a two-way tie for second would see Rose top the Race to Dubai if McIlroy finishes 47th or worse, Willett finish 46th or worse and Lowry, Oosthuizen, Grace and An don't win this week.

Danny Willett


Events: 22
Wins: 2
Top 10s: 8
R2D Points: 3,392,310

Danny Willett hasn't been outside the top two in the Race to Dubai rankings since winning the season-opening event at the Nedbank Golf Challenge and the Englishman added the Omega European Masters title seven months later. With a 28th place finish last week in China, Willett is within touching distance of McIlroy. If none of the above scenarios were to occur, Willett simply needs to finish 56th alone or better and beat McIlroy.

Rory McIlroy


Events: 11
Wins: 2
Top 10s: 7
R2D Points: 3,393,923

Despite picking up an ankle injury in the summer, wins at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic and WGC-Cadillac Match Play, along with top ten finishes at the year's first two Majors, have been enough to put Rory McIlroy in pole position with one event left in the season. To guarantee he wins his third Race to Dubai, the 26 year old needs avoid any of the Rose, Lowry, Oosthuizen, Grace or An scenarios above and tie or beat Willett's finish this week.

Stay tuned throughout the week for the latest updates and permutations.


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Tournament Leaderboard

Pos Player nameNatHolePar
1MCILROY, RoryNIR18-21
3GRACE, BrandenRSA18-15
T4MOLINARI, FrancescoITA18-13

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