The European Tour travels west from last week's Italian Open to Real Club Valderrama for the Andalucía Valderrama Masters hosted by the Sergio Garcia Foundation. This week represents the last chance for players to make the top 100 in the Race to Dubai Rankings and promises to throw up some tense moments and fascinating storylines. Masters Champion Sergio Garcia and Irish Open winner Jon Rahm also return to their native country and will be aiming to impress the locals.
Our stats guru has picked three players who could excel this week in southern Spain at a course that traditionally poses a firm challenge.
Pick of the favourites: Sergio Garcia
Sergio Garcia’s history at Real Club Valderrama suggests he is the man to back with some confidence this week. This year’s Masters Tournament winner has ten top tens at the course in Sotogrande, including victory at the 2011 edition of this event. Given Valderrama’s unforgiving nature, Garcia’s overall score to par of seven under for 48 rounds is far more impressive than it may sound. Only 14 players have finished at par or better in the last three tour events held at Valderrama, including Garcia after his success six years ago.
Scrambling for par could be key this week, which will be music to Garcia’s ears - he ranks second in that category for the season, successfully scrambling 66 per cent of the time. Garcia shot four under par rounds last week at the Italian Open to finish on 12 under, so returns home a confident man.
Form horse: Nino Bertasio
Home comforts no doubt proved valuable for Nino Bertasio last week in Monza, but form has been on the Italian’s side of late. Three top 15 finishes in his last four events, including his share of tenth in Italy, have helped Bertasio move inside the top 100 in the Race to Dubai Rankings at this crucial point in the season.
Ties for 15th and 12th at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship and Portugal Masters respectively mean the 29 year old does not necessarily need a big finish this week at Valderrama. Currently ranked 86th in the Race to Dubai, Bertasio can afford to be a little more relaxed, which could help him continue his consistent run. He was impressive in his Valderrama debut last year, when he finished in a tie for 11th at the Open de España. Everything is pointing to another good week for Nino.
Wildcard: Alejandro Cañizares
This year has not been straightforward for Alejandro Cañizares, but there is reason to believe this is the week his luck finally changes. Valderrama has proved a happy hunting ground for the Spaniard, having never finished outside the top 21 in three previous appearances. A share of 11th at the 2016 Open de España included an opening 67, just one of 12 sub-70 rounds at the course last year. Cañizares, son of former Ryder Cup man José María, also finished in a share of seventh in this event the last time it was held in 2011.
Nobody has a better sand save success rate (75.4%) this season than the 34 year old, which could be imperative around a famously tough course. A top 15 finish at the Italian Open last week means Cañizares has some confidence arriving in his homeland. On a course he clearly knows how to approach, that good result in Italy could prove the spark for another strong performance at Valderrama.
