The old expression tells us there are three types of lies: lies, damned lies, andstatistics.
And with this week’s BMW PGA Championship representing the 35th year in succession that the Surrey showpiece has been staged at iconic Wentworth Club, we decided to delve deep into the record books in an ambitious bid to concoct some sort of rhyme and/or reason behind the glittering list of names inscribed on the winners' board since the tournament made its permanent home here in 1982.
It goes without saying, early doors, that this feature comes with tongue firmly lodged in cheek accompanied by a sizeable pinch of salt. After all, it was only 12 months ago that Ben An confounded a myriad of statistics by winning the BMW PGA Championship as a rookie, ranked 132nd in the world coming into the week. Clearly, in golf, anyone can win, at any time.
Regardless, we ploughed on and, against the odds, managed to whittle down the 150-man field assembled in England to just two names.
Ready? Then let’s begin…
Total field size: 150
Our first cut comes in the form of the PGA regional and national professionals in the field, who each qualified for the event through places in local Orders of Merit.
No regional pro has ever triumphed in the BMW PGA Championship, with Ireland’s David Higgins the best performer in recent years after securing a share of tenth back in 2012.He’ll be back in the field again this year, along with nine others, but history suggests our winner won’t come from this group.
Potential winners: 140
In the last 34 years, just two men over the age of 40 have tasted success in the BMW PGA Championship. Evergreen, ever-popular Spaniard Miguel Ángel Jiménez triumphed in a play-off over Oliver Wilson in 2008 when he was 44 years old while Andrew Oldcorn was 41 when he claimed victory back in 2001.
The percentages aren’t with this demographic, however, so at this point we lose28players including two-time runner-up Lee Westwood, Søren Kjeldsen and Stephen Gallacher.
Potential winners: 112
Byeong Hun An’s stunning six-shot win last year was a masterclass in the art of making birdies, as the Korean notched a staggering 22 en route to victory. However, An and Scott Drummond (2004) remain the only men to have won as tournament rookies in more than three decades, meaning it’s fairly unlikely that the 2016 winner will again come from the crop of debutants in the field this week.
That means21players have to go, with the likes of WGC-HSBC Champion Russell Knox, Matt Fitzpatrick and the South African duo of Haydn Porteous and Brandon Stone dropping off at this point.
Potential winners: 91
In the 34 editions since the event docked for good at Wentworth, only two players have made the BMW PGA Championship their maiden European Tour victory – An in 2015 and Anders Hansen back in 2002.
Previous winning experience could be key around here, then, and that sees25players cut at this stage including Seve Benson, Eddie Pepperell and Mike Lorenzo-Vera.
Potential winners: 66
Recent success seems to count double when arriving at the famous West Course, too. Of the last 12 winners, eight had won at least one event in their previous 15 starts leading up to their triumph at the BMW PGA Championship.
This proves our biggest cut, with56players who haven’t tasted victory in their last 15 events leaving us including the likes of Rafa Cabrera Bello, Joost Luiten and Marc Warren.
Potential winners: 10
Now we start to get down to the nitty gritty with fewer than a dozen men still standing. It seems, looking at the history books, that winning is just part of the game. The stats show that 20 of the last 27 winners at Wentworth had achieved at least one top five finish in the same season before arriving at Wentworth so at this point we losethreemore names in Kristoffer Broberg, Shane Lowry and Alex Noren.
Potential winners: 7
Course form cannot be discounted either. Of the last 32 winners, 24 had previously finished in a tie for tenth or better at Wentworth on at least one other occasion.
Of our seven remaining players, five have never finished in the top ten before so here we lose some more big names in Victor Dubuisson, Andy Sullivan, Li Haotong, Andrew Johnston and SSP Chawrasia.
Potential winners: 2
And then there were two. From 150 players to just a pair of contenders in seven statistical cuts.
Drumroll please. The duo that the stats suggest could well be hoisting that famous trophy come Sunday evening?
No other than Masters Champion and World Number NineDanny WillettandMaybank Championship Malaysia winnerMarcus Fraser.
Where've you heard those two names together before? That will have been in Willett's first European Tour victory back in 2012, when the Englishman defeated Australian Fraser in a play-off for another BMW event - the International Open in Germany. Omens?
There you have it. So, whether you’re picking yourFantasy Race to Dubaiside, playing theEuropean Tour Daily Fantasy game, or perhaps having a small wager amongst close companions, make sure you have those two survivors on your radar because history suggests you won’t be too far off the mark.
That is, of course, if you can trust those pesky statistics…
