The 90th Masters Tournament is almost upon us. With just days to go until one of the most eagerly anticipated weeks in sport, a star-studded field awaits in anticipation - just like the fans - for the first men's Major Championship of the year.
While it is nigh on impossible to predict the drama that lies in store at Augusta National, that doesn't stop the annual pre-tournament interest in who might win the Green Jacket.
Where will the tournament be won and lost? How will Rory McIlroy perform as he defends his title? Will there be a rare rookie winner?
As ever, there are several sub-plots ahead of the action on the course beginning on April 9.
As one of golf's leading data analysts, long-time DP World Tour member and three-time winner Edoardo Molinari - who made his Masters debut in 2006 - will be among the many intrigued by how it all unfolds.
With 36 DP World Tour members set to tee it up - some of whom the Italian works with directly to provide invaluable numbers insights - a data-driven approach is likely to influence players' on-course decisions.
Here, as part of a regular column throughout the season, Europe’s Ryder Cup Vice Captain Molinari gives us his perspective on the key dynamics a player faces at Augusta National, who he thinks will mount title challenges and offers his insight into the holes that may prove instrumental in determining the winner.
By Edoardo Molinari - Data Analysis & Strategy
What does Augusta demand from a player?
Augusta National is unlike any other course on the Major rota. The data consistently shows that certain skills matter more here than anywhere else:
• Approach play from 150–200 yards — This is the most common approach distance at Augusta, and the players who control distance and trajectory into these undulating greens separate themselves from the field.
• Mid-range putting (7–25 feet) — Augusta's greens are so severe that even good approach shots leave 15–25 foot putts. The ability to make them is how you win.
• Chipping from tight lies — The closely mown areas around Augusta's greens demand a specific skill: clean contact from fairway-height grass with precise distance control. Miss the green and you're chipping off surfaces that punish poor technique.
• Par five scoring — Augusta's four par fives are the primary scoring opportunities. The players who can reach them in two (or lay up to their best wedge distance) and convert birdies consistently will be near the top of the leaderboard.
• Course management under pressure — Augusta rewards patience and punishes aggression in the wrong spots. The difference between a smart lay up and a forced carry over water can be a three-shot swing in a single hole.
Players to watch
Scottie Scheffler
Current form (2026): Gaining +2.54 strokes/round across six tournaments (24 rounds). His short game has been exceptional (+0.48/round), and his putting remains elite (+0.70/round). The one area that has dipped is approach play: +0.27/round in 2026 compared to +1.00 in 2025 and +1.23 in 2024. His approach from fairway has dropped from +0.63 (2024) to +0.17 (2026). It's worth monitoring, but even with this dip, the rest of his game is so strong that he remains the clear favourite.
Why he could win at Augusta:
• Gaining +3.16 strokes/round over the field across 61 rounds (last 10 months) — a level of dominance rarely seen in the modern game
• His approach play from 150–175 yards, Augusta's most common approach distance, ranks among the best in the world at +0.26 strokes/round
• Making putts at an extraordinary rate from 7–13 feet (+0.39/round), the distance that converts birdie chances on par fives
• Gaining +1.23 strokes/round on holes 7–12 alone — essentially the Amen Corner stretch — more than most top players gain in an entire round
• The only player in the field who is genuinely elite in all five shot categories simultaneously
Tommy Fleetwood
Current form (2026): Gaining +1.18 strokes/round in six tournaments (24 rounds). His wedge play (+0.27/round) and short game (+0.41/round) have stepped up significantly in 2026, while his accuracy off the tee remains a constant strength (+0.65/round). The one area to watch is putting, which has dipped in 2026 (–0.22/round) after being elite in the second half of 2025.
Why he should contend at Augusta:
• Gaining +2.03 strokes/round over the last 10 months — comfortably the best extended run of form in his career across 70 rounds
• His game is built on accuracy: +0.73 SG accuracy off the tee (Top-5 OWGR level) with a 66.6% fairway hit rate — Augusta punishes wayward drives more than almost any course
• Putting over the last 10 months has been elite: +0.51/round overall, with +0.25 from 7–13 feet and +0.21 from 14–23 feet — exactly the mid-range distances Augusta's multi-tiered greens demand
• Chipping from fairway at +0.15/round — critical around Augusta's tightly mown surrounds where you're often chipping from closely cropped lies
• Gaining +0.76 strokes on holes 13–18, the strongest final-six-hole performance of any player considered — the stretch where Sunday charges are built
Collin Morikawa
Current form (2026): Gaining +1.95 strokes/round in six tournaments (19 rounds). His approach play is at an extraordinary level (+0.92/round in 2026), and crucially, his putting has improved to near-neutral (–0.02/round) after being a significant weakness in 2025. If this putting improvement holds, he becomes one of the most dangerous players in the field.
Why he should contend at Augusta:
• The best iron player in the world right now: +0.91 SG Approach/round (last 10 months), which is above the number one OWGR benchmark (+0.82)
• From 175–200 yards — Augusta's key approach distance — he gains +0.24/round, nearly double the top-five benchmark
• His accuracy off the tee (+0.85 SG) means he consistently approaches from the fairway, where his approach numbers are elite (+0.40/round from the fairway)
• Wedge play from 100–125 yards at +0.14/round adds further scoring potential on the par fives when laying up
• The question mark has been putting (–0.44/round over the last 10 months), but his 2026 numbers (–0.02) suggest the putter is warming up — Augusta rewards ball-striking more than any other major venue
Sami Välimäki (Rookie)
Current form (2026): Currently at –0.34 strokes/round in 7 tournaments (21 rounds). His approach play (+0.27/round) remains a strength but his driving (–0.32/round) is holding him back. Augusta's wider fairways may actually suit him better than the tighter courses he's used to.
Why he could surprise at Augusta:
• Strongest approach game of any rookie in the field: +0.61 SG Approach/round over the last 10 months, including +0.16 from 200–225 yards — a key Augusta distance
• Excellent putter (+0.46/round over 10 months) with +0.29 inside 6 feet — the nerve under pressure that Augusta demands
• Approach from the rough at +0.30/round — the best recovery approach number of any player considered. When he does miss a fairway, he still finds greens
• Weakness is off the tee (–0.22 SG Tee), which Augusta will test, but his ball-striking from the fairway and ability to hole putts could offset that
• The first Finnish player at Augusta since Mikko Ilonen — a proud moment for Finnish golf and the DP World Tour
Where the Masters may be won and lost
Hole 10 — Camellia (Par 4, 495 yds): "Where the back nine sets the tone"
• One of Augusta's hardest holes: averages +0.20 over par with a 28% bogey-or-worse rate (2021–2025 data)
• The steep downhill tee shot demands a specific shape — miss left and you're blocked out by trees, miss right and the approach is nearly impossible from the pine straw
• On Sundays, it still produces a 25% bogey rate — a stumble here can unravel a Sunday charge before it begins
• The approach to a green that slopes severely front-to-back is one of the hardest on the course. Anything long leaves a near-impossible chip — players who control trajectory win this hole
• Strategy: Accuracy off the tee is paramount. The player who finds the fairway can attack the green; a player in the trees faces bogey and an immediate momentum shift heading into Amen Corner
Hole 15 — Firethorn (Par 5, 530 yds): "The swing hole"
• The biggest risk/reward hole at Augusta: 42% birdie rate on Sundays vs a 12% bogey-or-worse rate — regularly produces three-shot swings (eagle vs. bogey from the water)
• Plays –0.29 under par on Sundays (2021–2025), making it the most gettable hole on the course when it matters most
• The key decision: go for the green in two over the water, or lay up? The approach from 200–225 yards to a green that slopes toward the pond demands precise distance control
• Longer hitters who can shorten the second shot have a massive edge — Scheffler, McIlroy, and Gotterup can approach with 7–8 irons where others face 4–5 irons
• Short game is the most punishing area on this hole: –0.55 SG around the green on Sundays. Miss the green and you're scrambling around water — up-and-down percentages are well below average
• Strategy: The smart play is to take your medicine if the lie or distance isn't perfect. The tournament is rarely won here, but it can absolutely be lost with an aggressive play that finds the water
Hole 16 — Redbud (Par 3, 170 yds): "The Sunday pin"
• The famous back-left Sunday pin position turns this hole into theatre: birdie rate jumps to 20% on Sundays
• Year-to-year volatility is huge: birdie rates range from 14% to 20%, bogey rates from 14% to 24% — conditions and pin position dictate everything
• The strategy is aim 20–30 feet right of the flag and let the slope do the work. Players who try to be too precise and miss left find the water; those who trust the contour get birdie putts of 15–25 feet
• SG Approach 150–175 yards is the skill being tested: Scheffler (+0.26/round), Fleetwood (+0.19), and Morikawa (+0.13) are the best in the field at this distance
• Mid-range putting (14–23 ft) separates birdies from pars: Scheffler (+0.22), Fleetwood (+0.21), and Robert MacIntyre (+0.21) are best placed to convert
• Strategy: This is a hole where discipline wins. Trust the slope, take your 15-foot birdie putt, and move on. The player who makes birdie here on Sunday while others make par or worse gains a crucial stroke.
