For more than 30 years, the Slync.io Dubai Desert Classic has been one of the marquee events on the DP World Tour. For a player to add his name to the storied list of champions at this event, he will have to successfully navigate the trickiest holes at Emirates Golf Club - the 6th, 9th and 12th.
Historically, winners here have gained more than a quarter of a stroke (+0.27) over the field on the three toughest holes on the golf course. In 2013, Stephen Gallacher amassed a whopping 8.7 strokes gained against the field on those three holes on his way to victory, the most ever by a winner of this tournament.
We have examined these three holes – which we expect to be our Fortinet Threat Holes at Emirates Golf Club – and the test they provide for some of the world’s best players ahead of this week in Dubai.
Hole 6
Difficulty Rank: 1st
The 6th hole, a 484-yard par 4, traditionally plays about a quarter of a stroke over par, the toughest on the course. Finding the fairway at the 6th is more valuable than most holes at this desert oasis, as an accurate tee shot is worth, on average, 0.15 strokes against the field. Players typically face a longer approach into the green – 186 yards, the 2nd-highest average distance on the course. In turn, it’s no surprise that this hole ranks as the toughest to hit the green in regulation (42.2%) and to get the approach close to the hole (average proximity of 44 feet).
Scrambling is no picnic here either. At just 30.2%, this ranks as the hardest hole on the course to get the ball up-and-down. Players average 1.88 putts per green in regulation on this hole, the fourth-highest rate at Emirates GC.
Hole 9
Difficulty Rank: 2nd
The 9th hole at Emirates Golf Club is listed at 488 yards on the scorecard, longest of the par 4s. With a scoring average of 4.21, this hole plays just incrementally easier than the 6th. Additional driving distance is more valued here than on any other hole on the course – the field’s longest hitters can expect to gain 0.14 strokes over the competition.
Though distance is valuable here, accuracy with the driver is essential as well. Missing the fairway here is the most penalizing anywhere at Emirates Golf Club, with players losing nearly four-tenths of a stroke to the field on average (0.39 strokes). The average approach into the 9th green is about 177 yards, leading to less than 56 percent of players hitting it in 2 shots.
In 2021, Paul Casey made par here in all four rounds on his way to victory.
Hole 12
Difficulty Rank: 3rd
The 12th features the toughest fairways to hit on the course, with the field finding them off the tee just 49.2% of the time. At 476 yards on the card, players are again faced with a trying approach shot. On average, the field can expect an approach of 185 yards into the 12th green, leading to a GIR rate of 47.5%, second-toughest at Emirates GC.
At 42 feet, 8 inches, the 12th also yields the second-longest average proximity to the hole, trailing only the aforementioned 6th.
Players to Watch
The two players in the field this week who have performed best on these three holes are Lucas Herbert and Victor Perez. Among those with at least 10 rounds at Emirates GC, they are the only two to have averaged a combined score under par on the 6th, 9th and 12th. Rory McIlroy ranks 4th among players in the field in average strokes gained on those three holes, at +0.22 per round.
Already a 2-time winner of this event, McIlroy has a pre-tournament win probability of 6.7%, third-highest in the field. The two leaders in that predictive metric are Collin Morikawa (8.3%) and Viktor Hovland (7.8%).
