Who can win the 2021 Race to Dubai?

While any of the players in the 53-man field can end the week as DP World Tour Champion, only six can finish the season as European Number One.

World Number Two Collin Morikawa won his first World Golf Championships title at the WGC–Workday Championship at The Concession in March before earning his second Major at The Open in July, and currently leads the Race to Dubai.

At 3,856.40 points, the 2,000 points awarded to this week’s winner would see Morikawa make history as the first American to win the season long rankings, but mathematically he could finish last this week and still be crowned Number One – as long as Billy Horschel finishes worse than a two-way tie for eighth and the four other contenders don’t win.

Just 236 points behind Morikawa is fellow American Horschel, who captured the BMW PGA Championship at Wentworth in September and is also in the running to become the first American to win the Race to Dubai.

Sitting on 3,620.20 points, a win would guarantee the top spot for Horschel, but he could still finish as high as eighth and have a chance, provided Morikawa struggles and the four players below him don’t win.

Tyrrell Hatton memorably captured a record-breaking fifth Rolex Series title in Abu Dhabi at the start of the year, and currently lies in fourth place on the Race to Dubai. Entering the week on 2,472.1 points, Hatton would need to win to earn the 2,000 points required to overtake Morikawa at the top of the leaderboard. However, to guarantee the end of year spoils, Hatton would also need Morikawa to finish worse than a three-way tie for third and for Horschel to finish worse than a three-way tie for second.  

Min Woo Lee enters the week following an impressive run of three top tens in his last three starts – including a tie for fourth at last week’s AVIV Dubai Championship. Over the course of the year Lee has amassed 2,187 points from 20 events this season – which includes his first Rolex series victory at the abrdn Scottish Open. He would have to win on the European Tour for a third time in his career this week to guarantee the Race to Dubai Crown, but he will also need a little help from the players above him. 2,000 points would take him to 4,187, meaning Morikawa would need to finish worse than tied seventh, and Horschel would have to finish worse than fourth.

Also in the running is Matt Fitzpatrick, who claimed the DP World Tour Championship honours for a second last season with a final round 68. But the defending champion will have to win the title for an historic third time if he wants a chance at becoming European Number One. He needs to win, which would take him to 4,113.2, but he also needs Morikawa to finish worse than ninth and Horschel to finish worse than fifth.

The final man with a chance to win is fellow Englishman Paul Casey, who would move to 4,053.8 points with a victory. Casey earned his 15th European Tour title earlier this year at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic, as well as finishing inside the top ten in both the US PGA Championship and U.S. Open. For Casey to win it all this week, he would also need Morikawa to finish worse than a two-way tie for 12th, and Horschel to finish worse than a two-way tie for fifth.

Points Distribution